Out of Many, Two: Secession 2021
Dateline: Mike Forster, January 15, 2024
E Pluribus Unum: Out of Many, One — The motto of the 13 sovereign states that joined together to form the United States of America. As we all know, in 2021 21 states seceded from the United States to form the Federated States of America, and One became Two
As we approach the first Presidential election in the FSA this November, this article recounts the election of 2020, the secession, the effects on the USA and FSA since 2021, and the possible political futures for the USA and FSA.
The Election of 2020
In November, 2020, incumbent President Trump lost the electoral college 306 to 232 to former Vice President Joe Biden and the total popular vote by over 7 million votes. Democrats retained control of the House and Republicans maintained control of the Senate, 51 to 49.
Throughout November and December 2020, President Trump refused to accept the result. He claimed fraud and accused many states of intentionally miscounting votes. In early December, the Texas Attorney General filed suit in the US Supreme Court to, in President Trump’s tweet terminology, “overturn” the vote counts in four battleground states: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The attorneys general of seventeen states filed amicus briefs in support of the Texas lawsuit: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia. The Arizona attorney general filed a separate brief supporting the case. The Supreme Court rejected the case. The Electoral College confirmed President-elect Biden’s majority on December 14.
After the Supreme Court rejection of the Texas lawsuit, the Texas Republican Party suggested that “law-abiding states should bond together and form a Union”. Despite some objections even within the national Republican Party, the idea took hold.
21 states that voted heavily in favor of President Trump, most of which officially supported the Texas lawsuit and/or had a majority of their Congressional representatives support the lawsuit, and had strong Republican majorities in their state legislatures and a Republican governor, passed resolutions announcing their secession from the United States.
The Secession
In early January, the US Congress quickly took action. All 100 Senators met as a committee of the whole behind closed doors, allowing free discussion of the state of the Union. All 438 members of the House of Representatives did the same.
Senators started by discussing how to deal with a President who refused to accept the results of an election and leave office. However, the Trump-supporting states continued to be unwilling to accept the election results. Reports are that two Senators, one from each side, met separately, and were the first to seriously discuss secession and splitting the country into two countries. Together, they brought this idea to the committee of the whole. Senators were at first taken aback, but seeing no other solution, began discussing this option. By all accounts, the discussions were intense and taken very seriously. Being quite aware that there was the Constitutional deadline of January 20 for the Presidential inauguration, discussions proceeded quickly. The idea was passed to the House, and they quickly discussed this option as well.
As we all know now, Senators from a majority of the states were quite willing to allow the Trump states to secede, to form a new nation, the Federated States of America (FSA or FS). Republican, Democratic, and Independent legislators had come to believe that the political divisions within the country had become so polarized and extreme as to be irreconcilable. The House of Representatives reached the same conclusion.
The economically successful example of China as a one-party nation impressed both the Republican and Democratic parties. Both parties decided they would prefer to govern in what would essentially be two one-party nations.
Many conservative Christians believe that salvation is not just an individual personal matter — entire nations will or will not receive salvation. They would have a better chance of success in a smaller and more cohesive nation, the FSA, so that should be today’s solution. Salvation for the rest the US would be for another day.
Congress passed a bill that would enable any state to secede if that state’s legislature passed a resolution signed by the governor to that effect, and that state officially notified Congress.
President Trump was initially quite reluctant to relinquish the Presidency of the entire US — 50 states and 5 territories. Congressional members from the Trump states assured President Trump that his election in FS states would be validated, and so he would be recorded in history as the first President of the FS. Those same legislators plus the governors impressed on President Trump that his base would love to have their own separate nation. The final enticement was that legislators and governors promised President Trump that they would immediately pass and ratify an amendment enabling a President to serve three terms rather than two. He agreed and signed the secession bill into law.
Three states who were not part of the Congressional majority that agreed to secession sued the Trump states to prevent that secession. Because of the upcoming Constitutional inauguration deadline, that suit quickly reached the US Supreme Court. Surprisingly to some, the conservative-leaning Court ruled in a unanimous 9–0 decision for secession. The US Constitution is totally silent on secession, and the 10th Amendment clearly states, “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” Therefore, this Supreme Court concluded, the right of secession belongs to the states, with the collective agreement of the other states.
The Trump states had already passed secession resolutions, and so immediately notified the US Congress of their secession. The Trump states also immediately ratified the existing US Constitution as the initial FS Constitution.
On March 1, 2021, the FSA was created, with Donald Trump as its first President.
The District of Columbia and the five US territories — American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands — all remained with the US. Some groups in Puerto Rico have begun advocating more forcefully for Puerto Rico to become the next US state.
Rank in the World. Just to note: The 50-state USA had the highest GDP in the world — after secession, the US was still 1st and the FS was 3rd. The 50-state USA was 3rd in population — after secession, the US as 6th and the FS was 12th.
Government Locations. The US Congress met as scheduled in Washington, D.C. on January 3, 2021, in the existing House and Senate chambers.
The FS Congress first met on March 1, 2021 in the old Senate chamber in the Capitol, both Senate and House on alternating days. In September 2021, the FS Congress moved to renovated quarters in Richmond, VA as an interim capital. It was imperative that the Congresses and executive branches of the two nations remain in close proximity to resolve the many issues involved in separation.
President Trump vacated the White House on January 20, 2021 and moved to his personal residence at Mar-A-Lago as the President’s House.
President Biden’s inauguration took place as scheduled on January 20, 2021.
In June, 2023, the FS Congress moved its capital to Kansas City, Missouri. This placed the capital near the center of the FSA, like the original 13 colonies located Washington, D.C. in the seaboard middle of the country.
Effects in 2021
Legal Changes. Freed from most inter-party disagreements that had paralyzed the US Congress, both the US and FS moved within the first year to settle many major issues through state or federal laws or constitutional amendments.
The Supreme Court and District Courts. The Supreme Court cancelled all of its conference, argument, and non-argument days for January through April 2021 in anticipation of a division of the Court between the US and FS in 2021. In January 2021, the three liberal justices remained with the US Supreme Court, and the six conservative justices chose the newly-formed FS Supreme Court.
US President Biden nominated six new justices, and FS President Trump nominated three new justices. With the US and FS Senates working at breakneck speed, all were confirmed and in place on the Courts by May 1, 2020. Both Supreme Courts reviewed the cases pending when the secession occurred. Some were still applicable in both the US and FS, and others were applicable only in one of the two Courts. All pending cases in both nations required repeating the oral arguments with the newly constituted Court memberships.
Since 2021, Supreme Court decisions have been decided as one would expect: liberal-leaning decisions in the US and conservative-leaning decisions in the FS.
Both Congresses redrew the districts for the lower federal courts. Only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 12th districts were fully contained within the new US boundary, and only the 5th within the new FS boundary. The other 7 districts became split between the US and FS. Judges in those districts were allowed to choose whether to serve in the newly-drawn US or FS districts.
Trade. Trade between the US and FS has continued as a free trade zone. Both nations also continue to honor the USMCA trade agreement plus other agreements previously negotiated with other nations.
In 2021, the US and FS quickly took different approaches to trade with China. The US reduced tariffs but also passed laws that mirror China’s trade laws — requiring China to share intellectual property, especially engineering expertise, to continue to do business in the US, and so on. The US also began actively pursuing resolutions in the World Trade Organization (WTO). The FS continued President Trump’s tariff approach.
Also in 2021, the US rejoined the TPP. Both the US and FS revisited or began new trade talks with additional partners, including Japan, the UK, and the European Union. Those talks are progressing but none have been finalized so far.
Effects in 2022 and 2023
The US and FS Congresses and Presidents have moved more slowly on other major policy issues that do not have simplistic solutions and also have large budgetary or international impacts. In both nations, discussions are continuing on: the federal budgets and mounting debt; funding for social security long-term; foreign policy; election campaign finance (e.g., Citizens United); and other issues.
Defense. So far through 2023, Defense of the US and FS has continued as a joint operation. Each nation continues to provide about 3% of its GDP to the joint defense budget. The overall budget has been reduced somewhat through negotiations between the Defense Departments of each nation, plus some more careful attention to auditing of expenses eliminating some waste.
Immigration and Border Control: The US. Starting in 2021 and continuing through 2023, the US Congress has provided significantly increased funding for the southern borders of California, Arizona, and New Mexico for sheltering immigrants, immigration judges and attorneys, and border patrol and ICE staff. The US ended the no tolerance policy, separating children from families only in rare instances.
The US stopped building the “wall” but strengthened the US border through the use of technology — cameras, drones, and advanced sensors.
The US increased limits on legal immigration to 1.3 million per year. The US views this level as necessary to maintain economic growth, due to the American below-replacement birth rate and aging population.
Immigration and Border Control: The FS. Starting in 2022, the FS Congress has provided slightly increased funding for the southern border of Texas for shelters, judges, attorneys, and border patrol and ICE staff, and has so far continued the no tolerance policy.
The FS also reduced the scope of building of the “wall” in Texas due to opposition from landowners and legislators. Starting in 2023, the FS followed the lead of the US in applying technology to strengthen the border.
The FS immediately had concerns about illegal immigrants traveling between the US western states and the FS. Starting in 2022, the FS added checkpoints with random searches at the borders between the FS states of Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas that border the US states of Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.
The FS has continued President Trump’s policy of limiting legal immigration. Trump’s target in 2020 was 500,000 for the then 50-state USA. The FS has 35% of the of the 50-state USA population, so the FS Congress and Trump set a maximum of 175,000 legal immigrants per year.
Climate Change and the Environment. As expected, the US in 2021 and 2022 restored policies and regulations as they were before President Trump took office, including for: automobile fuel economy; coal-powered electric plant emissions; water quality and pollution avoidance; offshore drilling safety; funding for climate emissions monitoring; and revoking permits for industrial development in national parks and monuments.
Through 2023, the FS has continued the Trump administration climate change and environment policies as they were up to the 2020 election.
Administrative Changes
As part of an overall secession agreement, the US states and FS states agreed to resolve many of the multiple administrative issues by the end of the 2020 fiscal year, September 30, 2020, and others by September 30, 2021. Surprising to some, many of the administrative changes proceeded very smoothly.
The Federal Debt. On September 30, 2021, the federal debt total was almost exactly $25 trillion. The two nations settled on a division of the debt at US 60% and FS 40%, a compromise among proportions between the two nations of overall GDP, population, and GDP per person.
Social Security and Medicare. Fortunately, the Social Security computer systems were able to easily track both Social Security and Medicate payments into the system and payments to recipients by state. By October 1, 2021, the separate US and FS Social Security and Medicare departments had access to the single US-operated computer systems and each nation managed its own processing.
Starting in November 2021, a parallel system was implemented for the FS which mirrored all FS state transactions occurring on the US-operated system. On January 1, 2023, this parallel system took over all FS Social Security and Medicare processing, and the US system became limited to processing for US states.
Federal Departments. The US has so far retained all of the pre-secession federal departments.
Starting in November 2021 and completing by September 2022, the FS eliminated the Departments of Commerce, Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Transportation. Some functions were distributed to remaining departments or to the states, and others were simply eliminated.
The Political Directions of the US and FS
Migration. One result of the secession was migration both directions between the US and the FS. Housing, family, a job, and health are typical reasons for a person or family to move. As it turns out, political comfort and affiliation is another reason. In 2018, about 7.6 million people moved from one state to another. Such inter-state moves increased to about 9.5 million per year between 2021 and 2013. Surveys showed that the almost 2 million increase per year was almost entirely due to moves from the US to the FS or the FS to the US for political reasons, with about the same number of people moving either direction. Such moves made the US a little more liberal and the FS a little more conservative.
Party Realignments — the United States. Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both houses of Congress. Initially, Democrats were unified in promoting a left-of-center program in 2021 and into mid-2022.
However, the common “enemy” that united most Democrats, President Trump and “obstructionist” Republicans, was no longer a major factor. This led to the Democrats to more fully consider differing views within the party, views that had been stifled by the polarization and need for unification against the other party.
The minimization of Democratic-Republican strife plus ranked-choice voting in California and a few other states opened the door for some smaller parties to gain traction in the US. In 2022, a few local and state legislative offices were won by Green Party and Libertarian Party candidates Democratic states, and by American Independent Party and Libertarian Party in the four Republican-leaning states. No smaller party candidates have won Congressional offices, but there are indications this could change in the 2024 election.
Party Realignments — the Federated States. Republicans hold an even larger veto-proof majority in both houses of Congress in the FS vs. the US. The Republican majority continued a Trump-led program into 2023.
However, the loss of the common Democratic Party “enemy” as a practical obstacle led to voters becoming less accepting of the governing flaws of the Republican party. Traditional conservative attitudes began to reassert themselves in the party, such as the federal debt, free trade, and defense treaties like NATO.
The voice of smaller parties such as American Independent Party and Libertarian Party also started to become more powerful. These parties did not win any local or state offices in 2022, but many people expect that to change in 2024.
After seven years of President Trump, FS voters have gradually become less enchanted with his style of governance. The FS constitutional amendment enabled him to seek a third term. But Trump’s approval rating across the FS fell from 55% in early 2020 to 37% by late 2023. This opened the door for other Republican candidates to step forward into the Presidential race. In next month’s Iowa caucuses, Trump will be challenged by two Republicans, one a strongly traditional conservative and one right-of-center moderate.
The American Experiment Continues
It is too early to tell where the US and FS will be in 10, 20, or 50 years. It’s been only 3 years since the secession and despite the flurry of activity in early 2021 into 2022, inertia has regained its hold in government and politics.
The American Experiment began with its Constitution for 13 independent states forming a single Union. It now continues instead as not one nation but two nations, hopefully with two paths to success, for America and for the world.
